2015 Market Players: Rise of India, Indonesia, and the Philippines while China’s Economy is Shrinking

By: Juntee Terrenal, GMS, Strategic International Business Leader, Adviser & Coach

_2015 Emerging Markets_Indonesia_Phils_India

Other countries in the Asia Pacific Region are gearing up to advance economically, as we witness the shrinking economy of China,

China is being impacted with a generation of workforce that is aging, the continuous decline of younger labor workforce and male-female imbalances; theses factors were results of China’s “one child policy”  that was instituted in 1970’s. In December 2013, China’s top legislature decided of revising the ‘one-child policy’; the new policy allows couples to have two children if one of the parents is an only child.

Reuters reported that China’s factory sector unexpectedly shrank for the first time in nearly 2-1/2 years in January and firms see more gloom ahead, an official survey showed, raising expectations that policymakers will take more action to forestall a sharper slowdown.

The official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.8 in January, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Sunday, a low last seen in September 2012 and a whisker below the 50-point level that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis. (source: reuters.com)

“Most of the PMI indexes showed a downward trend, indicating that current economic growth is still in a downtrend,” said Zhang Liqun, an economist at the Development Research Center

However, according to Vanity Fair; in 2015 China entered in the top economic position, where it will likely remain for a very long time, if not forever. It overtook United States and the latter has become second to China.

Emerging Asia Pacific Economy in 2015 and beyond: 

On the other hand, Asian Development Bank projected that in 2015, the Philippines have slightly stronger economic growth through the rest of 2015 on expectations that post-typhoon reconstruction accelerates, government fiscal disbursement improves, and exports benefit from brighter prospects in the major industrial economies. Nevertheless, growth forecasts are trimmed since April owing to the unexpectedly low government spending coupled with higher inflation and associated monetary tightening.

_2015 Philippine GDP

“Indonesia’s resilient private consumption base continues to shore up domestic demand and growth.  Strengthening the other foundations of the economy and strengthening the investment climate will help return Indonesia to a stronger growth trajectory,” said World Bank Country Director for Indonesia, Rodrigo Chaves.

“Better spending, including in the healthcare sector and on social assistance programs, would help re-accelerate the rate of poverty reduction, which has slowed in recent years.  Without a stronger push in poverty alleviation initiatives, however, Indonesia’s poverty rate – now 11.3 percent – is projected to remain above 8 percent even in 2018,” said Ndiame Diop, World Bank Lead Economist for Indonesia.

 “Indian economy is likely to grow at 6.4 per cent in 2015 and accelerate further in the next year on the back of steps being taken by the Narendra Modi-led NDA government.” “We project that India will be a bright spot in an otherwise medium global economic outlook. (The) economy according to our projections is expected to grow 6.4 per cent this year and even faster in 2016,” – said World Bank President Jim Yong Kim

“We think 2015 could be the year that India turns the corner, posting growth of around 7 per cent. In the short term, low oil prices are likely to increase GDP growth, ease the pressures of India’s high current account deficit and help bring down inflation,” – PWC study indicated (source: NDTV)

Significance of Emerging Markets:

  • Each country will increase domestic and international growth that will affect citizens economically in regards to employment opportunities, trades, investments and businesses

  • Growth and advancement will provide an equilibrium where GDPs will rise and opportunities for better economic balance

  • Opportunities in the global landscape of competitiveness

 The various perspectives of organizations provide us insights that may influence economic direction during the year of 2015; however, with the uncertainties of numerous political leaderships around the world, these will create impact of which international societies will also experience. We will remain in monitoring the trending upswings of world economies along with the downturns of others.

When 2015 began, ReloNavigator’s readiness in assisting clients of all sizes of organizations in solving their international challenges or issues have also started. We look forward to continue our endeavors with bright opportunities in the weeks and months ahead.

At any time, your teams and organization will be needing guidance in regards to your international business, please do not hesitate to call us. Our teams are available to discuss your issues and help you in redefining solutions that will achieve your business objectives with results including return of your investment.

_2015 Client successes

About Juntee Terrenal, GMS:

Mr. Terrenal is your partner in becoming the “High Performing Organization” of 2015 and beyond; strategic international business Leader, adviser & coach, competent, human capital and resources management. Creates initiatives combined with business acumen and ROI integrating complex human capital and resources that clients seek, globally. With 20+ years of experience he brings many time and money-saving solutions to your complex business issues and problems particularly when operating internationally. Negotiator, communicator, proven track record in accelerating productivity, organizational effectiveness, talent management, service quality. Quoted to numerous international media outlets.

As an experienced global mobility management specialist, human capital management executive and management consultant, he and his team create solutions, converting client’s needs into actions, resolving their challenges. Mr. Terrenal and his global team have successfully assisted, implemented and accelerated businesses and personal successes of their corporate and individual clients by using their ROI-driven techniques in over 40 countries.

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